>> schieffer: welcome back to "face the nation" in boca raton, florida, where the candidates are squaring off for their final debate tomorrow night. we have some of the best journalists in the business here today to talk about it. peggy noonan, a columnist for the "wall street journal." david sanger, who is the chief washington correspondent for the "new york times." joe klein is "time's" political columnist. and last but not least, our own john dickerson. but before we begin this discussion, i do want to take note that former south dakota senator george mcgovern, who was the democratic presidential candidate in 1972, died this morning. he was 90. he had remained active in public service and interested in politics and public affairs until the very end. last spring, moderated a panel at hunter college in new york that included senator

mcgovern, former vice president walter mondale, among others, and he was energetic, engauging, and very witty. he was a world war ii bomber pilot before going into politics. and even those who disagreed with him that you felt him as a very nice man. george mcgovern has passed on at 90. and now to the news of the day. peggy noonan, let's start with you. what do you think the stakes are for this debate tomorrow night? >> oh, i think the stakes are pretty high for both candidates. it is the last of three debates. it is the last time i think the american people are going to see these two men together before voting day on november 6. there is a lot that we know they disagree about, about foreign affairs, but in an hour and a half they're going to get a little time to lay it out. the election is close, so it seems to me, this debate cycle we have been in has been truly consequential in a way i've

never seen of debates, presidential debates before. i think that will likely continue tomorrow, and if we are lucky, we, the voteres, we will come out of it at the end thinking, i actually know something of mitt romney's philosophy as he looks at the world and america's place in it. i understand better what president obama wants to do and how he sees things. >> schieffer: well, do you think-- most american elections and so far this one has been exactly the same, they're generally about economic policy, about pocketbook issues. does foreign policy, could it actually make a difference? could it be a tipping point in this election? >> oh, you never know. you know. we've got-- as i said, 16 days before election, but as kevin madden said no, 15 days and 20 hours. you know what i mean? things are going very quickly. any number of things can happen. the world is at a boil in various places, such as the middle east, where both candidates really fight it out. also, i would say, i mean, i

wonder if the candidates will talk about this, america's foreign policy is utterly dependent on america having good economic policy that helps america be wealthy. all of our strength is connected to our wealth. so in a way, foreign policy and economic policy are very close. i assume in a way, they'll talk about both. >> schieffer: let me ask david sanger, you have a big piece in the "new york times" today, and i think you also reported that iran is now ready to deal on this whole issue of nuclear weapons. marco rubio said-- you know, he said the white house has denied it. how serious do you think this is? is this really-- are they really ready to sit down now, or is this some sort of ploy? >> bob, the story says they're ready to go talk. it doesn't say they're ready to go deal, and whether they're ready to if deal is something we don't know yet. there have been moments before where the iranians walked up, including in 2009, in president obama's first year in office,

where they walked up to the edge of a deal that could have really prevented a lot of what's happened in the past two years. and in the end, the supreme leader in iran killed the deal after his own negotiators had agreed to it. so senator rubio made the point that the iranians sometimes see negotiations as just a chance to buy time, and that might be what's going on here. but the white house has always said they were willing to talk to the iranians one on one, and i thought it was interesting when i saw president ahmadinejad in new york a few weeks ago, here, too, indicated he thought iran and the u.s. had to talk, but only after the election. now, the iranians have a lot of calculation to make after that. and one of them is, of course, who gets elected. it would be hard to imagine that mr. romney, if he was just in his first year in office, would want to get into a lengthy negotiation before he had a chance to understand the nature of what's going on. you know, it would be sort of diplomatic malpractice if the u.s., israel, and iran headed

toward war and hadn't talked to each other first. >> schieffer: joe, i want to get to you just about the dynamics of this race so far. it has been mostly about economic stuff, but now we're coming down to foreign policy in the last weeks of the campaign. how do you-- what do you think of this campaign right now? where do you see it going? >> well, these debates-- the distribution always fascinating. and the big thing that the debates decide for most people is who you want to have in your house for the next four years. the president is the most intimate office we have. and the obama campaign spent the entire summer very effectively making the argument through advertising that mitt romney was a rich guy who didn't care about you. i think that romney took care of that. that was a huge mountain for thill to climb. he took care of that argument in the first debate. the second debate, i thought obama had a stronger debate than romney, but still, you know, for

an undecide voter, especially on economic,the president didn't do all that well because he isn't talking about what he's going to do in the next four years. tomorrow night is fascinating. because in truth, these guys don't disagree all that much on all this stuff. they essentially have the same positions on foreign policy. this business about the-- you know, the libya consulate has been like the october mirage. it really isn't an issue. and so once again, tomorrow, obama's going to have a very strong position because his foreign policy has been largely successful. in terms of substance, but in terms of style, he still has to climb-- re-climb the mounten and make a convincing case to the american people that they will be more comfortable with him in their living rooms. >> schieffer: where do you think the electoral map is? >> the national polls are completely tied, basically.

the "wall street journal"/nbc has a poll out today, 47-47. this election is brought to you by the number 47, apparently. and in the battleground states we also see it tight. where the president is doing well, in ohio, the average of the polls has him up by two points. romney is doing well in florida. the average has him up by two points. nobody supby any more than that. romney is doing better in florida, virginia, and colorado. the president is doing well in the middle east. in terms of this debate, the president is-- it's a continuity debate for the president, basically. he has an ad out now on the economy where a guy with a close-cropped haircut at the end says, "stick with this guy want am well, if you're watching him talk about foreign policy, the president has a better case to make on want "stick with this guy." for undecide voters judging the economy and all kinds of different things, the president can make that case-- stick with me. don't change horses in midstream on foreign policy. it may not be your number one issue but it slides over on the argument he's making on all issues.

>> schieffer: you know, i think it's entirely possible you would have one of these candidates win the popular vote and another win the electoral vote. >> i think that's possible. you could. it depends. it's so tight now, we really don't know. there was a period where the national polls showed a big surge for romney. that would suggest he gets more people. but the president ekes it up on the in the battleground states. his advantage in the path to 270, used to be great. it is shrinking now as romney does better. but that-- that scenario is possible. people are now even talking about a scenario in which you have 269 electoral votes to 269 electoral votes as they both carve up the remaining swing states. that would kick it into the house of representatives for the president. but then the senate would choose the vice president-- excuse me-- that's right, the senate would choose the vice president. so in theor you could have the republicans choosing their man and the democrats in the senate choosing their man.

>> schieffer: refresh my memory, that would be the current congress this would go to or the new one? >> it wouldn't newly elected congress making those decisions. > decisions. >> schieffer: so they couldn't make that decision until next year. >> well, that's right, and if it's the newly elected senate, it would be a 50-50 senate, and who breaks the tie in the senate? the vice president. the sitting vice president. >> oh! >> schieffer: the sitting vice president. >> oh! >> schieffer: peggy, let me ask you about this whole thing, obama-- this speech that he was making this reek about romnesia. i gotta say, you heard kevin. he said oh, this is illustrates the smallness of the campaign this far. but, you know, people-- the people he was, obviously, speaking to democrates, the democrats love that. >> yeah. to tell you the truth, when you just sit back, don't be a righty or lefty, republican, democrat, just be a connoisseur of campaigns, that was good stuff. that was obama having fun for the first time, it seemed to me,

almost, on the campaign trail, and also saying something funny that people chuckle about, and then hear in their heads. -- hold in their heads rather. could i add to something john said. i think one of the fascinating things about this presidential campaign, and all the smarty-pantss and all the political professionals, pundits-- everybody who follows politics really closely, follows ohio, follows virginia, knows the numbers, is talkin talking about about, nobody knows what's going to happen this year. it's so interesting to me. normally people who are paying a lot of attention got a real idea that i'm fascinated by the mystery of it. i'm also fascinate by something john dickerson said last night if you don't mind me quoting you. it is there is a sense out there that the american people are up to something we don't know about, and just might be about to hand us some surprise that they've been cook up that lots of people don't know about. do you know what i mean? that there's just something

going on. >> you know, since i'm so much older than schieffer, i stopped making predictions-- >> schieffer: would you like to come back next week. i'd love to have you? ( laughter ). >> i stopped making predictions five or six cycles ago because we're really good about describing the past. we're pretty good about what's happening right now. we're really terrible when it comes to the future. >> yeah. >> schieffer: you know, i'll tell you, you all make me feel so much better because i thought i was the only one that couldn't figure out what was going to happen. i'm glad to know there are some other people out there who don't know any more about it than i do. let's take a little break and we'll capitol hill back and talk about this some more. this is fun. two years ago, the people of bp made a commitment to the gulf. and every day since, we've worked hard to keep it. bp has paid over twenty-three billion dollars to help people and businesses who were affected, and to cover cleanup costs.

today, the beaches and gulf are open for everyone to enjoy -- and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. we've shared what we've learned with governments and across the industry so we can all produce energy more safely. i want you to know, there's another commitment bp takes just as seriously: our commitment to america. bp supports nearly two-hundred-fifty thousand jobs in communities across the country. we hired three thousand people just last year. bp invests more in america than in any other country. in fact, over the last five years, no other energy company has invested more in the us than bp. we're working to fuel america for generations to come. today, our commitment to the gulf, and to america, has never been stronger. s. >> schieffer: we're back with more of our political panel. david sanger, you wrote a long piece today in the "new york times" about what you kind of

are hoping you'll hear in this debate. >> bob, i think what's fascinating about these two candidates, when they have talked about individual issues-- how to handle iran, how to handle syria-- you've need a mike rometter sometimes to figure out the differences. one would do sanctions. one would do crippling sanctions. one would send lied arms. one would send heavy armses. when you talk about the way they would use american power what you discover is there really is a difference. you have in mitt romney a man who keeps talking about restoring that unipolar moment for the united states, where the u.s. was the preeminent power around the world and basically had no challengers. and we had that for a while really between the collapse of the soviet union and the beginning of 9/11. what you hear from president obama is something different. what you hear is we're in a different age now. we've got to pull back from

these wars. we have to build coalitions. and countries that have a greater interest in solving a problem like libya or syria have to put skin in the game first. the u.s. will be there to back them up. that's a very different concept. it's one of sort sharing power, building coalitions. now, you heard mr. romney say at various points he, too, would build coalitions, and i'm sure he would. but the question is does the world view mr. romney as somebody who wants to bring back america allegation the sole superpower? do they view president obama as somebody who can actually engage the rest of the world? what he promised in 2008, he's governed more through drone strikes, through cyber-attacks on iran, through want use of special forces. and that's the mystery of his next four years. >> schieffer: peggy, can we afford-- do we have the money to be the kind of superpower that we-- that-- as david said-- that mitt romney thinks about? >> well, i think if we are going

to be a strong force in the world in the future, we will probably have to get our economic realities figured out. it's a funny thing, but i think in part, part of the prestige-- part respect in which we were held in the world the past 50, 100 years, had to do with the fact that we knew economically how to do it. we were a beacon. we led the way in spreading wealth. and we could show you how to do it. the world now is a different place, a more difficult place in? somerespects, they can look at us and say,un what? you don't have your own books order. you don't have your own reality in order there. i think it's led a little bit to a loss of prestige. i would say, david, i don't think mitt romney is thinking in terms of i want america to be the sole unipower. i think he is thinking about an enhancement of and a coming back of a certain prestige for the

united states in the world. there is a feeling among many conservatives-- i share it-- that the world is a slightly better place when it knows it has a strong, mature, and stable and sophisticated america on which it can rely when troubling moments occur. >> let me just-- >> if he can-- if he screens that tomorrow night, i think that will be a really interesting moment. >> could i just say, peggy, i disagree with you about this. as i travel the world, the longest line in any given town is the line for visas at the american embassy. >> they still want to come here. >> people still admire our freedom. they envy us. they want to be free, too. >> yes. >> schieffer: let me just-- >> what i said was not meant to suggest otherwise. it's known as want "gate theory." you judge a country by whether people are trying to come in the gates to be with you, or out of the gate to get away from you. the gate's still working for us. >> schieffer: let me ask joe something. i heard marco rubio.

mitt romney said on day one he's going to label china a currency manipulator. and marco rubio said i don't think that's such a good idea because we risk setting off a trade war if we do that. >> boy, was that fascinating or what? you know, the one issue in this debate tomorrow night that is a major domestic issue in this country, at least on the ground level, is china. and you hear-- you hear governor romney being very aggressive, and where is that coming from? that is coming from his focus groups in ohio, in wisconsin, in pennsylvania, throughout the industrial midwest, where people think that china's been cheating and that we're slipping behind them. the trouble is, as senator rubio pointed out, you don't want to get into a trade war. that would be much, much, much worse. but this is a real challenge for the president tomorrow night because romney is going to take the position that is politically popular in the swing states, and

how does the president respond to that? this is a real test. >> i think you know, he'll say offshoring. and outsourcing. he'll go right back to bain. when i talked to-- >> that's not good enough, i don't think. >> perhaps, but that's what his advisers working on the ground in ohio want for the same reasons want the president to talk about with respect to china and romney's own personal history. >> schieffer: well, i don't think that mitt romney's getting that from the chamber of commerce, is he? peg sympathy since day one. >> the china remarks? i think mitt romney sometimes has a tendency to talk a little bit aggressively on china, on trade, on russia, as our number one competitor or enemy or something. there's a certain aggression sometimes that creeps into what he says that i don't know where it's coming from. >> it's the result, though, of what david is talking about, the differences between these two have to be,ed in eye micrometer, so he is trying to put dune big

polls and saying these the are the distinctions that at times-- libya is an example-- get him in trouble because the distinctions aren't that big. >> he has a range of foreign policy advisers, and because of what john just said, he's more likely to listen to the ones on the far right who give him a much greater difference in opinion from the president. and i think that he has been over-stating the case relentlessly, and sometimes misstating the case on issues like the middle east. >> an interesting question about whether we're debating the wrong question on china. china is beginning to slow down-- not as much as we've slowed down now. the next president, whoever it is, might have a harder time dealing with a weak china rather than a strong one, one that isn't buying our goods as much, one that is reacting around the world in part by making these claims in the south china sea, and so forth. i'd be interested in hearing how the-- each one of these candidates would deal with a

china noose a transition we haven't seen before. that may be harder. >> i add, going back to-- to-- to romney and his aide aides and his sometimes tough foreign policy standing, it seems to me in part, these debates have so raised governor romney's standing with a lot of people, with independents. his numbers with women have gone up. my feeling has been fair very long time, people like to pick as president to the extent they can the guy or woman who says, you can be safe with me. if romney feels he has to show how strong he is and aggressive, that is a little bit at odds with you want to know something, i'm calm, i'm cool, i understand the world and i'm a pair of safe hands. i'm not looking for trouble we don't have to have or that we don't have to bring. maybe we'll see him work out that tension, indeed, it is a tension tomorrow. >> schieffer: one thing we have not talked about is turnout

in this early vote. is turnout still what it's all about, john? >> it is, if you looked at the president's romnesyeah line he was so happy he came up with, that is in part about turnout. the early votin voting is gog in the battleground states. it started in north carolina yesterday, and what the president is doing with a message like that is speaking to turning out the voters. if he can bank those younger voters who love that line and will pass it along, if eke bank them and at the end of the day who knows early, and the secretary of state lets you know, that allows them to think about how to play the other states, how to change their message otherwise. they are-- both sides are pretty enthusiastic. the president, though, is the one who has been working harder because his enthusiasm has been a little bit below the republicans who are excited about turning out the president and after that denver debate, excited now about mitt romney. >> schieffer: quickly. >> bob, the other thing i want to hear tomorrow night,

afghanistan. here we are, we still have 68,000 troops there. you heard joe biden say everybody south by 2014. that isn't the president's plan. the president's plan is keep an enduring force to watch over afghanistan. >> schieffer: after we pull out our combat forces. thank you all so much. we'll be back in a minute with some of the lighter political moments of the week.

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weight loss. if you have any of these signs, please call your doctor. early detection can save your life. give to save lives and reach for the cure. call now or log on to childrensdiabetesfoundation.org. >> schieffer: one of the most pleasant interlose in presidential campaigns is when the candidates request to the al smith charity dinner in new york as they did it thursday and have a little fun with each other. that's our "face the nation" flashback. >> a campaign can require a lot of wardrobe changes. blue jeans in the morning, perhaps, suits for a lunch fund-raiser, sport coat for dinner. but it's fleiss to finally relax and wear what anne and i wear around the house. ( laughter ). >> i heard some people say, barack, you're not as young as you used to be. where is that goldep smile? where is that pep in your step? and i say, settle down, joe.

i'm trying to run a cabinet meeting. ( laughter ). >> i was actually hoping the president would bring joe biden along this evening because he'll laugh at anything. ( laughter ) >> some of you guys remember, after my foreign trip in 2008, i was attacked as a celebrity because i was so popular with our allies overseas. and i have to say i'm impressed with howl governor romney has avoided that problem. >> people seem to be very curious as to how we prepare for the debates. let me tell you what i do. first, refrain from alcohol for 65 years before the debate. ( laughter ) second, find the biggest available strawman and then just mercly attack it. big bird didn't even see it coming. >> even though we're enjoying ourselves tonight we're both thinking ahead to our final debate on monday. i'm hoping that governor romney and i will have a chance to answer the question that is on the minds of millions of americans watching at home-- is this happening again? ( laughter ) >> schieffer: this week's "face the nation" flashback.

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